First Post: A Tale of Two Patterns

Focus City: State College, PA

Recent event: Phil saw his shadow - not discussed.

Short term Forecast:

High pressure over the upper Midwest in the wake of our latest cold front from Wed. will provide partly to mostly cloudy conditions over much of PA the next five to seven days. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal: highs 41-46; lows 26-31. Two lows will make their way toward the Delmarva, but the high prevents the two lows from getting anywhere near the State. I cannot rule out clouds in southern PA and a few flurries near KPHL, but more likely than not, we will be dry.

Long range Outlook:

The long-term oceanic oscillations (AO, NAO, ENSO, PNA and MJO) will turn more favorable for East Coast storms in about 6-12 days. Here are the forecasts for 12 days (and the favorable value/ phase for East Coast Storms in parenthesis):

(1) ENSO: El Nino vs. La Nina => weak La Nina (moderate El Nino to weak La Nina)
(2) AO: Arctic Oscillation => slightly negative (negative)
(3) NAO: North Atlantic Oscillation => neutral (negative)
(4) PNA: Pacific North-American => slightly positive (negative)
(5) MJO: Madden-Julian Oscillation => Phases 6-8 (Phases 1,6-8)
(6) PDO: Pacific Decadal Oscillation => Cool Phase (???)

Long range GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) has a nor'easter predicted for hhe night of the 11th into the 12th (a week from tomorrow). It looks to be mostly rain at this point due to high pressure in the mid-Atlantic states; better to have a high over the Great Lakes/ Northeast regions, but it is too far in advance.

Acknowledgements:
(1) Dr. Knight (PA State Climatologist) for the Winter Wx 4csting Lecture tonight
(2) Gabriel Lojero (CWS forecaster) for MJO info.
(3) PSU Campus Weather Service (cws.met.psu.edu) for the five-day forecast
(4) The PSU e-Wall (www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewall.html) for the long-range GFS
(5) NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) for Oscillation data