There is no focus city but the forecast will look at PA & NY.
Wednesday & Thursday:
Precipitation starts during the morning from West to East as a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain to the north of the PA turnpike along and east of the Appalachians. Elsewhere, rain will change to thunderstorms in SW PA. The changeover is slower than previously thought: NY and some parts of northern PA along and north of US-6 stays mixed. Between areas north of the PA turnpike and along/ south of I-80, the changeover will occur around 3 PM. Areas in the northern half that see the changeover, sleet could still fall at times. After midnight, the precip. will change to a mix of snow and sleet (light freezing drizzle) for most of PA, at first from the front, but mostly associated with lake-effect during the wee hours.
Leeside troughing causes a weak low to form east of the Delaware & Chesapeake Bays, which heads up the coast late-week.
Thursday Nght into Friday Night:
We get a brief break from wintry precipitation as temperatures recover slightly form the cold front. Some peeks of sun may occur during this period. An area of weak high pressure moves through the northern Mid-Atlantic states during this time.
The Weekend:
A cold front threatens during this period. Expect mostly rain but sleet mixing at the onset is possible.
Next Week:
A short-wave/ area of weak low pressure moves through during the first half. A cold front threatens during the second half of the period.
Beyond the 15-day:
There is a chance for a frontal passage during the period.
Relatively quiet weather is likely to occur considering that previous forecasts this month had about 4-6 systems threaten in the 5-18 days covered by the long-range ensembles.
Oscillations:
Weak El Nino developing; Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations stay relatively positive. MJO is relatively favorable until early March.
Climatology Note:
March is typically the best month for major winter storms, but the NAO would have to be solidly negative for this scenario to play out. It is not totally out of the question, but my gut tells me there's only a 5-25% chance for an eight-plus-inch snowstorm before April 1.
Monday, February 27, 2012
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Show of Shows Weekend
Focus Cities: Atlantic City, NJ (ACY) and Philadelphia, PA (PHL)
Forecast:
Thursday Night (PHL): Cloudy. Chance of showers after midnight. Low 44.
Friday Daytime (PHL): Rain likely early. Thunder possible. Then, cooling with showers likely AND a chance of sleet or frzg. rain, after 2 PM. Cooling down. High 59.
Friday Daytime (ACY): Thundershowers likely. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Friday Night (PHL): Mainly cloudy around sunset. Partly cloudy overnight. Windy. Low 34.
Friday Night (ACY): Chance of showers during the evening. Mostly cloudy after midnight. Windy and cooler. Lows in the upper 30s to around 40.
Sat. Daytime (PHL): Mainly sunny early. Mostly cloudy after noonish. Windy and cooler. High 48.
Sat. Daytime (ACY): Mostly sunny for much of the day. Passing clouds during the late afternoon. Windy and colder. Highs in the 40s.
Sat. Night (PHL): Cloudy early; then, mostly clear. Less windy after 11 pm, but still cold. Low 30.
Sat. Night (ACY): Cloudy early; then, mostly clear. Less windy after 3 am, but still cold. Lows in the 20s.
Sunday Daytime (PHL): A mix of clouds and sun early; then, partly sunny after noon. High 45.
Sunday Daytime (ACY): Mostly sunny early; then, partly sunny after 3 pm. Highs around 45.
Sunday Night (PHL): Mostly cloudy. Low 33.
Sunday Night (ACY): Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s into the low 30s.
Monday Daytime (PHL): Cloudy. Warmer. High 50.
Good luck, Bands!
Forecast:
Thursday Night (PHL): Cloudy. Chance of showers after midnight. Low 44.
Friday Daytime (PHL): Rain likely early. Thunder possible. Then, cooling with showers likely AND a chance of sleet or frzg. rain, after 2 PM. Cooling down. High 59.
Friday Daytime (ACY): Thundershowers likely. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Friday Night (PHL): Mainly cloudy around sunset. Partly cloudy overnight. Windy. Low 34.
Friday Night (ACY): Chance of showers during the evening. Mostly cloudy after midnight. Windy and cooler. Lows in the upper 30s to around 40.
Sat. Daytime (PHL): Mainly sunny early. Mostly cloudy after noonish. Windy and cooler. High 48.
Sat. Daytime (ACY): Mostly sunny for much of the day. Passing clouds during the late afternoon. Windy and colder. Highs in the 40s.
Sat. Night (PHL): Cloudy early; then, mostly clear. Less windy after 11 pm, but still cold. Low 30.
Sat. Night (ACY): Cloudy early; then, mostly clear. Less windy after 3 am, but still cold. Lows in the 20s.
Sunday Daytime (PHL): A mix of clouds and sun early; then, partly sunny after noon. High 45.
Sunday Daytime (ACY): Mostly sunny early; then, partly sunny after 3 pm. Highs around 45.
Sunday Night (PHL): Mostly cloudy. Low 33.
Sunday Night (ACY): Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s into the low 30s.
Monday Daytime (PHL): Cloudy. Warmer. High 50.
Good luck, Bands!
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Feb. 21st to Mar. 9th.
This forecast is of a different format due to reasonable model agreement in the first ten days.
Focus City: Harrisburg, PA
Avg. High/ Low/ Precip: 43-47/ 25-29/ 2.03"
Ten-day forecast:
Tonight through Thursday AM: Isol'd showers, sleet or snow mixed in at night. Highs well into the 50s. Lows in the mid 30s. The precipitation is ahead of a clipper.
Friday: Rain, a chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon. High 63. Rain changing to a mix overnight. Low 30. The cold front will move through during the period. The GFS is faster than the Euro with regards to the front's timing. Given the GFS's tendency for fast solutions, will use the Euro's solution.
Saturday: Light snow from time to time. High 40. Snow tapers during the night. Lows in the upper 20s.
Sunday and Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the low 40s. Lows in the upper 20s.
Long-range:
The waning days of February won't pass uneventful as two cold fronts move through next week. Beyond the night of the 29th into March 1st, about four systems could threaten during PSU's spring break the first full week of March - weekends included.
Focus City: Harrisburg, PA
Avg. High/ Low/ Precip: 43-47/ 25-29/ 2.03"
Ten-day forecast:
Tonight through Thursday AM: Isol'd showers, sleet or snow mixed in at night. Highs well into the 50s. Lows in the mid 30s. The precipitation is ahead of a clipper.
Friday: Rain, a chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon. High 63. Rain changing to a mix overnight. Low 30. The cold front will move through during the period. The GFS is faster than the Euro with regards to the front's timing. Given the GFS's tendency for fast solutions, will use the Euro's solution.
Saturday: Light snow from time to time. High 40. Snow tapers during the night. Lows in the upper 20s.
Sunday and Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the low 40s. Lows in the upper 20s.
Long-range:
The waning days of February won't pass uneventful as two cold fronts move through next week. Beyond the night of the 29th into March 1st, about four systems could threaten during PSU's spring break the first full week of March - weekends included.
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Blog Description
This blog was created by Jaron Breen on February 2nd, 2012.
About the Author
Jaron Breen is a junior at the Pennsylvania State University studying meteorology. He is from the Philadelphia suburbs. He has no clue how he wants to apply his skills after earning his bachelor's degree: he is considering broadcasting & operations and would like to pursue tornado research at some point. Yes, he does want to be a storm chaser. He expects to graduate in either December of 1013 or May of 2014.
The focus for his bachelors degree is to hone his forecasting skills and prepare for a job in broadcasting or operations. He is required to take the following courses: Introductory I & II (completed), thermodynamics (completed), dynamics (taking), synoptics (taking), computer programming (completing), atmospheric measurements, and cloud physics. He will take the following electives with the intent of improving forecasting skills and a preparing for job: Weather Challenge, Mesoscale & Tropical Meteorology, and Weather Communications I & II. He has succeeded in learning Linear Algebra, Vector Calculus, Differential Equations, Statistics, Physics, and Chemistry; and he occasionally tutors students. He is an active member of the Campus Weather Service, managing at least one forecasting shift and one communications shift per semester, giving weather briefings weekly. He is also a student member of the National Weather Association and American Meteorological Society.
Besides the weather, his other interests are Philadelphia sports, particularly the Phillies; Penn State sports such as the football, baseball, soccer, gymnastics, volleyball and basketball teams; and playing the clarinet and saxophone in various groups.
About the Blog
This blog will discuss the short-term forecast and then will go beyond the five-day and attempt to discuss the weather from day six through day seventeen. The focus will be in an Pennsylvania city, most likely State College or Philadelphia, but will discuss weather occurring in other parts of the country.
His Intentions
He would like to apply what he learns in his classes and through forecasting opprotunities with peers and adults at PSU and professionally. He wants to learn how to give seasonal outlooks. In a few semesters, he will add seasonal outlooks to the blog as well. If there is an event predicted for the Eastern half of the country, he may provide forecasts just for the one event.
Soon, I may move this blog to a Google site.
One more thing: he discusses the weather frequently on Facebook, in a group called "Northeastern Storm Trackers." Check it out.
About the Author
Jaron Breen is a junior at the Pennsylvania State University studying meteorology. He is from the Philadelphia suburbs. He has no clue how he wants to apply his skills after earning his bachelor's degree: he is considering broadcasting & operations and would like to pursue tornado research at some point. Yes, he does want to be a storm chaser. He expects to graduate in either December of 1013 or May of 2014.
The focus for his bachelors degree is to hone his forecasting skills and prepare for a job in broadcasting or operations. He is required to take the following courses: Introductory I & II (completed), thermodynamics (completed), dynamics (taking), synoptics (taking), computer programming (completing), atmospheric measurements, and cloud physics. He will take the following electives with the intent of improving forecasting skills and a preparing for job: Weather Challenge, Mesoscale & Tropical Meteorology, and Weather Communications I & II. He has succeeded in learning Linear Algebra, Vector Calculus, Differential Equations, Statistics, Physics, and Chemistry; and he occasionally tutors students. He is an active member of the Campus Weather Service, managing at least one forecasting shift and one communications shift per semester, giving weather briefings weekly. He is also a student member of the National Weather Association and American Meteorological Society.
Besides the weather, his other interests are Philadelphia sports, particularly the Phillies; Penn State sports such as the football, baseball, soccer, gymnastics, volleyball and basketball teams; and playing the clarinet and saxophone in various groups.
About the Blog
This blog will discuss the short-term forecast and then will go beyond the five-day and attempt to discuss the weather from day six through day seventeen. The focus will be in an Pennsylvania city, most likely State College or Philadelphia, but will discuss weather occurring in other parts of the country.
His Intentions
He would like to apply what he learns in his classes and through forecasting opprotunities with peers and adults at PSU and professionally. He wants to learn how to give seasonal outlooks. In a few semesters, he will add seasonal outlooks to the blog as well. If there is an event predicted for the Eastern half of the country, he may provide forecasts just for the one event.
Soon, I may move this blog to a Google site.
One more thing: he discusses the weather frequently on Facebook, in a group called "Northeastern Storm Trackers." Check it out.
Saturday, February 18, 2012
Storm Update
Busted! Sorry for those of you up north... it's going to affect the mid-Atlantic States, not the NE. Was a nice opportunity to learn about nor'easters! A cold front is forecasted in the short term. More on that later.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO)
The Weather Center of JBreezy
Original Post: 2:47 PM – THURS. Feb. 16th, 2012
Update Posted: 12:20 AM - FRI. Feb. 17th, 2012
This HWO is for much of the Eastern U.S., especially in PA.
Days One and Two: Thursday & Friday
A cold front will exit the Mid-Atlantic States tonight, primarily producing rain. A brief period of snow in the northern portions cannot be ruled out. The front will clear New England by Friday Evening.
Days three through five: Saturday through Monday
A low pressure system located over the SW States will head east toward Texas & Louisiana tonight & tomorrow. After arrival, the upper-level low will open up into the flow to the north. While the exact track remains uncertain, it appears more likely that a nor’easter will head in for early next week. This scenario depends on five things: phasing (the upper-level (UL) cut-off low rejoining the main trough to the north), the Newfoundland low, a weak cold front over the Great Lakes, a surface high in the Eastern Plains, and where the nor’easter is in relation to a jet streak.
The phasing is the biggest factor; the other factors will not matter if phasing is too late. Therefore, until the UL cut-off low opens up tomorrow night, uncertainty will be too great to forecast the nor’easter’s track accurately. On the flip side, most models agree that the low will be in the right place near the jet streak for maximum UL divergence; hence, the surface low will be quite strong.
For now, a 50% or greater probability of 6+” to fall sits approximately from Nashville, TN to the Washington, D.C. area.
Stay tuned for further updates on the possible nor’easter.
Thanks to Brian Edwards from AccuWeather. His discussion was very helpful in creating this.
The Weather Center of JBreezy
Original Post: 2:47 PM – THURS. Feb. 16th, 2012
Update Posted: 12:20 AM - FRI. Feb. 17th, 2012
This HWO is for much of the Eastern U.S., especially in PA.
Days One and Two: Thursday & Friday
A cold front will exit the Mid-Atlantic States tonight, primarily producing rain. A brief period of snow in the northern portions cannot be ruled out. The front will clear New England by Friday Evening.
Days three through five: Saturday through Monday
A low pressure system located over the SW States will head east toward Texas & Louisiana tonight & tomorrow. After arrival, the upper-level low will open up into the flow to the north. While the exact track remains uncertain, it appears more likely that a nor’easter will head in for early next week. This scenario depends on five things: phasing (the upper-level (UL) cut-off low rejoining the main trough to the north), the Newfoundland low, a weak cold front over the Great Lakes, a surface high in the Eastern Plains, and where the nor’easter is in relation to a jet streak.
The phasing is the biggest factor; the other factors will not matter if phasing is too late. Therefore, until the UL cut-off low opens up tomorrow night, uncertainty will be too great to forecast the nor’easter’s track accurately. On the flip side, most models agree that the low will be in the right place near the jet streak for maximum UL divergence; hence, the surface low will be quite strong.
For now, a 50% or greater probability of 6+” to fall sits approximately from Nashville, TN to the Washington, D.C. area.
Stay tuned for further updates on the possible nor’easter.
Thanks to Brian Edwards from AccuWeather. His discussion was very helpful in creating this.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
THON Weekend and Beyond: Part I
Focus City: State College, PA - THON
Short term (Rest of the week and THON weekend):
A couple of mid-latitude cyclones will be moving through the area this week. The first one will produce snow showers (540-Dm 1000-500-mb thickness line and 850-mb, 0-deg.-C Isotherm are south of PA) tonight and tomorrow. After a brief break and a warm-up, the second one will produce rain showers (a mix in some spots) Thursday AM thru Thursday night, and then change to snow showers for the first half of Friday. On Saturday, expect a clipper to move by, but most areas of PA will remain snow-free. High pressure moving in between the systems on Friday and Saturday will briefly stay in south-central PA before the clipper moves in.
Long-term (Storm potential):
It appears that one nor'easter will threaten on Monday AM, with a 36-hour watch period: most likely, it will move off shore well before reaching 40 degrees N latitude. It appears that about four more systems will threaten during the week or two after THON weekend.
I encourage all to go to cws.met.psu.edu and check out the five-day forecast - I run tomorrow afternoon's shift (expect the page to be updated by 5-5:30 PM). I will write another entry before THON - probably Thursday night; hence, why I called this "...Part I." Travel safely if coming up this weekend!!!
Short term (Rest of the week and THON weekend):
A couple of mid-latitude cyclones will be moving through the area this week. The first one will produce snow showers (540-Dm 1000-500-mb thickness line and 850-mb, 0-deg.-C Isotherm are south of PA) tonight and tomorrow. After a brief break and a warm-up, the second one will produce rain showers (a mix in some spots) Thursday AM thru Thursday night, and then change to snow showers for the first half of Friday. On Saturday, expect a clipper to move by, but most areas of PA will remain snow-free. High pressure moving in between the systems on Friday and Saturday will briefly stay in south-central PA before the clipper moves in.
Long-term (Storm potential):
It appears that one nor'easter will threaten on Monday AM, with a 36-hour watch period: most likely, it will move off shore well before reaching 40 degrees N latitude. It appears that about four more systems will threaten during the week or two after THON weekend.
I encourage all to go to cws.met.psu.edu and check out the five-day forecast - I run tomorrow afternoon's shift (expect the page to be updated by 5-5:30 PM). I will write another entry before THON - probably Thursday night; hence, why I called this "...Part I." Travel safely if coming up this weekend!!!
Thursday, February 9, 2012
Arctic Front and THON Week
Focus City: State College, PA and other portions of the Commonwealth
Average:
High: 33°F; Low: 16°F
Precip:
2.64” liquid
11.1” snow
Short term (CWS/ NWS Seven-Day Forecast):
Hope you all enjoyed the recent snow… more is on the way but not as much. First, we have high pressure in control for the next day or two. A powerful arctic cold front will be making its way southeastward from southern Canada tomorrow night and Friday. Less than an inch of snow is expected with the front despite a short-wave trough forming on the leeward side of the Appalachians. The recent snow was caused by a short-wave trough. Due to the absence of a second high pressure system, the cold spell will be short-lived but powerful: near-average temperatures expected for Saturday and Sunday. Winds will kick up overnight Sat. and last through Sunday, bringing wind chill values to the single digits. A system is coming for the middle of the week. Ahead of it, warm air will start creeping into the area, increasing temperatures for the middle of the week.
Long range (Beyond the Seven-Day):
The GFS and Euro pick up on a coastal storm for the first half THON weekend. While many are dancing for 46 hours in the Bryce Jordan Center fighting pediatric cancer, rain and snow will probably be falling: the 540-Dm 1000-500 mb Thickness line, which statistically coincides with the surface freezing line, bisects the Appalachians. A nor’easter is expected for that Monday the 20th, followed by a similar set-up to this weekend’s storm, which may occur on the 24th. Have a good weekend!
Average:
High: 33°F; Low: 16°F
Precip:
2.64” liquid
11.1” snow
Short term (CWS/ NWS Seven-Day Forecast):
Hope you all enjoyed the recent snow… more is on the way but not as much. First, we have high pressure in control for the next day or two. A powerful arctic cold front will be making its way southeastward from southern Canada tomorrow night and Friday. Less than an inch of snow is expected with the front despite a short-wave trough forming on the leeward side of the Appalachians. The recent snow was caused by a short-wave trough. Due to the absence of a second high pressure system, the cold spell will be short-lived but powerful: near-average temperatures expected for Saturday and Sunday. Winds will kick up overnight Sat. and last through Sunday, bringing wind chill values to the single digits. A system is coming for the middle of the week. Ahead of it, warm air will start creeping into the area, increasing temperatures for the middle of the week.
Long range (Beyond the Seven-Day):
The GFS and Euro pick up on a coastal storm for the first half THON weekend. While many are dancing for 46 hours in the Bryce Jordan Center fighting pediatric cancer, rain and snow will probably be falling: the 540-Dm 1000-500 mb Thickness line, which statistically coincides with the surface freezing line, bisects the Appalachians. A nor’easter is expected for that Monday the 20th, followed by a similar set-up to this weekend’s storm, which may occur on the 24th. Have a good weekend!
Monday, February 6, 2012
Short-term Outlook: Wed's Snow Event
Short-term: Wed. Snow
GFS Solution;
Timing:
a) Sunrise in Morgantown, WV;
b) 9 am in Pittsburgh, PA;
c) 10 am in State College, PA;
d) noon in Harrisburg, PA - Morgantown, WV flurries;
e) 4 pm E of I-476 - Pittsburgh & Altoona flurries;
Amount: I-77 to I-99 corridors;
a) Total liquid equivalent: 0.12 to 0.21 in.;
b) Potential Snow (8:1): 1.0 to 1.8 in.;
c) Potential Snow (12:1: 1.5 to 2.5 in.;
NAM solution;
Timing:
a) Morgantown, WV: 8:30 am;
b) Pittsburgh, PA: 10:30 am;
c) State College, PA: Noon;
d) Harrisburg, PA: 1:00 pm;
e) Philadelphia, PA: 1:45 pm;
Amount: Mason-Dixon Line from WIL, DE to WHLG, WV;
a) Liquid Eq.: T -> 0.19 in;
b) Sn 8:1 Rat: 0.1 - 1.5 in;
c) Sn 12:1 Rat: 0.1 - 2.3 in;
Go with a GFS & NAM consensus while favoring the GFS at a 10:1 ratio.
Long-range: First Nor'easter;
First scenario: Path takes it near I-10 through Nrn FL;
Second scenario: Path takes it right in the middle of the Gulf;
Near SE Coast, divergent jet stream. Over Gulf = Moisture;
SECOND SCENARIO FAVORED
GFS Solution;
Timing:
a) Sunrise in Morgantown, WV;
b) 9 am in Pittsburgh, PA;
c) 10 am in State College, PA;
d) noon in Harrisburg, PA - Morgantown, WV flurries;
e) 4 pm E of I-476 - Pittsburgh & Altoona flurries;
Amount: I-77 to I-99 corridors;
a) Total liquid equivalent: 0.12 to 0.21 in.;
b) Potential Snow (8:1): 1.0 to 1.8 in.;
c) Potential Snow (12:1: 1.5 to 2.5 in.;
NAM solution;
Timing:
a) Morgantown, WV: 8:30 am;
b) Pittsburgh, PA: 10:30 am;
c) State College, PA: Noon;
d) Harrisburg, PA: 1:00 pm;
e) Philadelphia, PA: 1:45 pm;
Amount: Mason-Dixon Line from WIL, DE to WHLG, WV;
a) Liquid Eq.: T -> 0.19 in;
b) Sn 8:1 Rat: 0.1 - 1.5 in;
c) Sn 12:1 Rat: 0.1 - 2.3 in;
Go with a GFS & NAM consensus while favoring the GFS at a 10:1 ratio.
Long-range: First Nor'easter;
First scenario: Path takes it near I-10 through Nrn FL;
Second scenario: Path takes it right in the middle of the Gulf;
Near SE Coast, divergent jet stream. Over Gulf = Moisture;
SECOND SCENARIO FAVORED
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Nor'easter Fortnight, Anyone?
Focus City: Washington, D.C.
Avg. High: 45°F
Avg. Low: 29°F
Precip: 2.71"
Short term - Three Shortwaves & One Large Trough
The southern branch of the jet stream stretches from central TX to northeastern AR, then along the 36° 30' N parallel to Norfolk, VA and points east. It's width: State College, PA to Charleston, SC. A series of short-waves will change the orientation to SW-NE and combine the southern branch with a strengthening jet streak (now located in central Canada) on Wednesday. A trough will fully develop by the end of the work week. Temperatures will be above average but no higher than the upper 50s.
Each short-wave will produce cloudy skies and a few sprinkles, flurries or freezing drizzle: (1) Wee hours Tuesday; (2) Early Wednesday (best chance for accumulations); and (3) Wee hours Thursday
Long range - FIVE (5) Nor'easters?!!!
Yes, we have five nor'easters in the forecast - all going out to sea. However, it is too far in advance to determine (1) where and when they will affect the mid-Atlantic States AND (2) what precipitation they will produce. The first one is expected for this Sunday afternoon (the 12th) and the last one the model predicts will occur on Tuesday the 21st - NINE DAYS OF NOR'EASTERS. To predict the precipiation type: predict the high and predict the snow.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-Jaron Breen
Avg. High: 45°F
Avg. Low: 29°F
Precip: 2.71"
Short term - Three Shortwaves & One Large Trough
The southern branch of the jet stream stretches from central TX to northeastern AR, then along the 36° 30' N parallel to Norfolk, VA and points east. It's width: State College, PA to Charleston, SC. A series of short-waves will change the orientation to SW-NE and combine the southern branch with a strengthening jet streak (now located in central Canada) on Wednesday. A trough will fully develop by the end of the work week. Temperatures will be above average but no higher than the upper 50s.
Each short-wave will produce cloudy skies and a few sprinkles, flurries or freezing drizzle: (1) Wee hours Tuesday; (2) Early Wednesday (best chance for accumulations); and (3) Wee hours Thursday
Long range - FIVE (5) Nor'easters?!!!
Yes, we have five nor'easters in the forecast - all going out to sea. However, it is too far in advance to determine (1) where and when they will affect the mid-Atlantic States AND (2) what precipitation they will produce. The first one is expected for this Sunday afternoon (the 12th) and the last one the model predicts will occur on Tuesday the 21st - NINE DAYS OF NOR'EASTERS. To predict the precipiation type: predict the high and predict the snow.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-Jaron Breen
Thursday, February 2, 2012
First Post: A Tale of Two Patterns
Focus City: State College, PA
Recent event: Phil saw his shadow - not discussed.
Short term Forecast:
High pressure over the upper Midwest in the wake of our latest cold front from Wed. will provide partly to mostly cloudy conditions over much of PA the next five to seven days. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal: highs 41-46; lows 26-31. Two lows will make their way toward the Delmarva, but the high prevents the two lows from getting anywhere near the State. I cannot rule out clouds in southern PA and a few flurries near KPHL, but more likely than not, we will be dry.
Long range Outlook:
The long-term oceanic oscillations (AO, NAO, ENSO, PNA and MJO) will turn more favorable for East Coast storms in about 6-12 days. Here are the forecasts for 12 days (and the favorable value/ phase for East Coast Storms in parenthesis):
(1) ENSO: El Nino vs. La Nina => weak La Nina (moderate El Nino to weak La Nina)
(2) AO: Arctic Oscillation => slightly negative (negative)
(3) NAO: North Atlantic Oscillation => neutral (negative)
(4) PNA: Pacific North-American => slightly positive (negative)
(5) MJO: Madden-Julian Oscillation => Phases 6-8 (Phases 1,6-8)
(6) PDO: Pacific Decadal Oscillation => Cool Phase (???)
Long range GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) has a nor'easter predicted for hhe night of the 11th into the 12th (a week from tomorrow). It looks to be mostly rain at this point due to high pressure in the mid-Atlantic states; better to have a high over the Great Lakes/ Northeast regions, but it is too far in advance.
Acknowledgements:
(1) Dr. Knight (PA State Climatologist) for the Winter Wx 4csting Lecture tonight
(2) Gabriel Lojero (CWS forecaster) for MJO info.
(3) PSU Campus Weather Service (cws.met.psu.edu) for the five-day forecast
(4) The PSU e-Wall (www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewall.html) for the long-range GFS
(5) NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) for Oscillation data
Recent event: Phil saw his shadow - not discussed.
Short term Forecast:
High pressure over the upper Midwest in the wake of our latest cold front from Wed. will provide partly to mostly cloudy conditions over much of PA the next five to seven days. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal: highs 41-46; lows 26-31. Two lows will make their way toward the Delmarva, but the high prevents the two lows from getting anywhere near the State. I cannot rule out clouds in southern PA and a few flurries near KPHL, but more likely than not, we will be dry.
Long range Outlook:
The long-term oceanic oscillations (AO, NAO, ENSO, PNA and MJO) will turn more favorable for East Coast storms in about 6-12 days. Here are the forecasts for 12 days (and the favorable value/ phase for East Coast Storms in parenthesis):
(1) ENSO: El Nino vs. La Nina => weak La Nina (moderate El Nino to weak La Nina)
(2) AO: Arctic Oscillation => slightly negative (negative)
(3) NAO: North Atlantic Oscillation => neutral (negative)
(4) PNA: Pacific North-American => slightly positive (negative)
(5) MJO: Madden-Julian Oscillation => Phases 6-8 (Phases 1,6-8)
(6) PDO: Pacific Decadal Oscillation => Cool Phase (???)
Long range GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) has a nor'easter predicted for hhe night of the 11th into the 12th (a week from tomorrow). It looks to be mostly rain at this point due to high pressure in the mid-Atlantic states; better to have a high over the Great Lakes/ Northeast regions, but it is too far in advance.
Acknowledgements:
(1) Dr. Knight (PA State Climatologist) for the Winter Wx 4csting Lecture tonight
(2) Gabriel Lojero (CWS forecaster) for MJO info.
(3) PSU Campus Weather Service (cws.met.psu.edu) for the five-day forecast
(4) The PSU e-Wall (www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewall.html) for the long-range GFS
(5) NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) for Oscillation data
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