Sunday, February 5, 2012

Nor'easter Fortnight, Anyone?

Focus City: Washington, D.C.
Avg. High: 45°F
Avg. Low: 29°F
Precip: 2.71"

Short term - Three Shortwaves & One Large Trough

The southern branch of the jet stream stretches from central TX to northeastern AR, then along the 36° 30' N parallel to Norfolk, VA and points east. It's width: State College, PA to Charleston, SC. A series of short-waves will change the orientation to SW-NE and combine the southern branch with a strengthening jet streak (now located in central Canada) on Wednesday. A trough will fully develop by the end of the work week. Temperatures will be above average but no higher than the upper 50s.

Each short-wave will produce cloudy skies and a few sprinkles, flurries or freezing drizzle: (1) Wee hours Tuesday; (2) Early Wednesday (best chance for accumulations); and (3) Wee hours Thursday

Long range - FIVE (5) Nor'easters?!!!

Yes, we have five nor'easters in the forecast - all going out to sea. However, it is too far in advance to determine (1) where and when they will affect the mid-Atlantic States AND (2) what precipitation they will produce. The first one is expected for this Sunday afternoon (the 12th) and the last one the model predicts will occur on Tuesday the 21st - NINE DAYS OF NOR'EASTERS. To predict the precipiation type: predict the high and predict the snow.

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-Jaron Breen

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