Short-term Outlook: Wed's Snow Event

Short-term: Wed. Snow

GFS Solution;

Timing:

a) Sunrise in Morgantown, WV;
b) 9 am in Pittsburgh, PA;
c) 10 am in State College, PA;
d) noon in Harrisburg, PA - Morgantown, WV flurries;
e) 4 pm E of I-476 - Pittsburgh & Altoona flurries;

Amount: I-77 to I-99 corridors;
a) Total liquid equivalent: 0.12 to 0.21 in.;
b) Potential Snow (8:1): 1.0 to 1.8 in.;
c) Potential Snow (12:1: 1.5 to 2.5 in.;

NAM solution;

Timing:
a) Morgantown, WV: 8:30 am;
b) Pittsburgh, PA: 10:30 am;
c) State College, PA: Noon;
d) Harrisburg, PA: 1:00 pm;
e) Philadelphia, PA: 1:45 pm;

Amount: Mason-Dixon Line from WIL, DE to WHLG, WV;
a) Liquid Eq.: T -> 0.19 in;
b) Sn 8:1 Rat: 0.1 - 1.5 in;
c) Sn 12:1 Rat: 0.1 - 2.3 in;

Go with a GFS & NAM consensus while favoring the GFS at a 10:1 ratio.



Long-range: First Nor'easter;

First scenario: Path takes it near I-10 through Nrn FL;
Second scenario: Path takes it right in the middle of the Gulf;

Near SE Coast, divergent jet stream. Over Gulf = Moisture;

SECOND SCENARIO FAVORED