Mid-Week & Beyond

There is no focus city but the forecast will look at PA & NY.

Wednesday & Thursday:

Precipitation starts during the morning from West to East as a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain to the north of the PA turnpike along and east of the Appalachians. Elsewhere, rain will change to thunderstorms in SW PA. The changeover is slower than previously thought: NY and some parts of northern PA along and north of US-6 stays mixed. Between areas north of the PA turnpike and along/ south of I-80, the changeover will occur around 3 PM. Areas in the northern half that see the changeover, sleet could still fall at times. After midnight, the precip. will change to a mix of snow and sleet (light freezing drizzle) for most of PA, at first from the front, but mostly associated with lake-effect during the wee hours.

Leeside troughing causes a weak low to form east of the Delaware & Chesapeake Bays, which heads up the coast late-week.

Thursday Nght into Friday Night:

We get a brief break from wintry precipitation as temperatures recover slightly form the cold front. Some peeks of sun may occur during this period. An area of weak high pressure moves through the northern Mid-Atlantic states during this time.

The Weekend:

A cold front threatens during this period. Expect mostly rain but sleet mixing at the onset is possible.

Next Week:

A short-wave/ area of weak low pressure moves through during the first half. A cold front threatens during the second half of the period.

Beyond the 15-day:

There is a chance for a frontal passage during the period.

Relatively quiet weather is likely to occur considering that previous forecasts this month had about 4-6 systems threaten in the 5-18 days covered by the long-range ensembles.

Oscillations:

Weak El Nino developing; Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations stay relatively positive. MJO is relatively favorable until early March.

Climatology Note:

March is typically the best month for major winter storms, but the NAO would have to be solidly negative for this scenario to play out. It is not totally out of the question, but my gut tells me there's only a 5-25% chance for an eight-plus-inch snowstorm before April 1.