Tornado Alley Shift or Just Normal Variability

Updated 2/14/2020

A few weeks ago, a study was published saying that tornado alley - N TX thru S ND into E CO, W AR, SE WY & SW MO - is seeing fewer tornadoes and the climatological (30 yr) epicenter of tornadoes is shifting eastward. Several rumors/ innuendos/ stories/ and hyped-up statements have emerged. But I think several factors are at play here.

Errors?

The first thing we need to look at to dispute this is potenital for error. Thirty-year climatology for tornadoes for the 1960-1990, 1970-2000, 1980-2010 and soon-to-exist 1990-2020 periods will capture most tornadoes thanks to advancements in radar capabilities. Some tornadoes are still missed due to population density - cited by Dr. Nese & Dr. Forbes (both were at Penn State) in their 1998 article on PA tornado climatology, an intense study of PA tornadoes in 1996 found at least one tornado that would have been classified as straight-line wind damage. However, these missed tornadoes, even on a national scale, do not provide a huge error to the results (at least not as huge as before 1960 or especially before 1990). NWS now surveys the worst damage whether or not a tornado was sighted and pictures on social media also help NWS (the claims can be a problem). For instance:

Lingonier, MA in Aug. of 2015 was hit by a supercell and a very ominous cloud - sent through social media. The supecell had a hook on radar but a survey found no tornadic damage. Why didn't one form? Not enough moisture. I was watching the radar live from the AMS Mesoscale Conference in nearby Boston at the time alongside Howard Bluestein. Yep, the Boston native and Univ. of OK professor frequently cited in the news, professional journals and on video documentaries.

So, with errors out of the way, what is my problem?

Recent Data: Dixie Alley & 2011

The results of the study are 1985-2015 and there were several recent outbreaks in the Southeast states, known as Dixie Alley (think Civil War). Most notable is April 27th, 2011: Alabama was hardest hit. And 2012 was quiet overall but even more so in the Plains states - again, traditional tornado alley. Last year (no reflected in the report) was quiet too but unfortunately for 2-3 dozen people so far, this year is starting active. My condolences to the families.

This is a consideration.

Combining Errors & Recent Data

We also have to consider that the study didn't compare data in large enough increments - change in 25-yr climatology over time: '60-'85, '65-'90...'90-'15. With so much year-to-year variability, I conclude that their study is flawed. It is a trend worth watching.

Further: ENSO, Plains vs. Southeast, and Climate Change

Studies also found a connection between the epicenter and teleconnections. You'll frequently hear that term in seasonal forecasting or you may be familiar with PNA, AMO, SOI (a big factor this winter), QBO, MJO, AAO, NAO, AO, PDO and particularly ENSO (El Nino "Southern" Oscillation) - region 3.4 affects the USA. ENSO's has two phases: warmer than avg (El Nino) or cooler than avg (La Nina). These teleconnections tell us where the shift will occur: somewhat but not exactly where. Using both climate and NWP models, all the scenarios (back to the Plains, staying in the SE and shifting further north & east) do play out in the climate guidance - and it doesn't matter if the future is cooler or warmer (whether human-influenced or natural variability). Again, all scenarios still play out this year and in future years.

Preparation

There are two points I'd like to emphasize. In terms of tornadoes, they have occurred in the history of each of the lower 48 states because the USA has access to all the ingredients for tornadoes. Second, if you are not in tornado or Dixie alley (and even if you are in some of those areas), you are still prone to other disasters that everyone should be prepared for. That's all any of us can do is to be hope for the best and prepare for the possibility of the worst (whether imminent or not). There's no need to panic and it is irresponsible to cause panic when something isn't imminent (severe weather) nor predictable (exact time of major earthquakes for instance). The disaster kits I have you put together (and check when the time changes - just now BTW!) apply to any disaster to which your community is prone. And even if there is something predicted, moving calmly yet steadily will increase your chances of executing your plan (evac, shelter in place, etc.) successfully. Thank you for your time.

The NCEP Suite: An Update

Good afternoon and hope most of you East of the Rockies kept warm yesterday. We in Philly had our second big storm (first since Nov - second snowfall since last week) and it took the northernmost route possible. Now we look toward the weekend into next week for our next event. More info can be found on Facebook & Twitter toward the end of the week but a summary is posted on social media. I am writing for two reasons but really one big one: the shutdown.

First, to all the forecasters, great job forecasting these last events and issuing the watches and warnings. You have my deepest gratitude. The reason the NWS spends lots of time forecasting - for those that favor consolidation - is to prepare the warnings: most of us know that the NWS issues severe storm, tropical, flood and winter storm alerts but did you know they issue temperature-, marine-, aviation-, and wind-related alerts too? They are just as critical because all those types lead to lives threatened - exposed skin can become frostbitten and heat stroke requires hospitalization - while the others threaten both lives and property. It can be stressful when the models don't agree (Euro is doing well, GFS is ok but UKMET & CMC didn't do so well the last few days) and that's doesn't take into account the NWS's mission - add that and no paycheck and the stress levels go through the roof. Forecasting is not just monitoring the models but they can tell us what's coming in the next five days with great confidence and - if you follow them daily - sometimes seven or even ten days.

According to Capital Weather Gang (Washington Post's Weather Team), there is only one NCEP employee (no staff either, so thank you!) monitoring the models and while the government is shuttered, they are only authorized to prevent & fix crashes - like loss of data or frozen components. Any other changes are on hold, including the implementation of the 13-km GFS and constantly-running now-4D-VAR-EnKF-hybrid GFS Data Assimilation (initialization) System (GDAS). It was originally scheduled for last fiscal year but has been delayed to early FY2020. If the shutdown persists, it will be pushed back even further. In testing, the new GFS reduced error in TC Track and the skill score (unitless) at 500 mb/ 18,000 ft - a key layer of the atmosphere - improved by 0.01. Taking yesterday into account, that would have told us - earlier - that the storm would most likely turn NW over Arkansas.

Please, Mr. Trump, end the shutdown. These disasters need better predictions, especially hurricanes and tornadoes - it was a former hurricane (Sandy) that led to accelerating this effort. Oh yes, (1) this low produced a strong tornado in Alabama before coming up the mid-Atlantic and (2) damage and especially disruption can occur from any storm. Our predictability falls further behind Europe everyday and that is without the shutdown.

Good job to the forecasters. Good luck to the others once this fiasco ends.

Return of the Hype-Casters: Hurricane Florence Edition

Hi, everyone. It has been awhile since I've blogged. As I've stated before, the core of JBreezy Weather is social media and I've had trouble keeping up with that. So what compels me to blog tonight (12:30 AM ET Sat 8/8)? Florence.

Every severe weather event - more specifically extreme precipitation (winter storm, tropical system, and severe storms day) - has become seemingly more difficult to predict. Why? I'm sure many of you thought of the weather models come to mind. So are they to blame? Yes, to a degree. It seems that Mother Nature does throw a curve ball every now and again that many meteorologists cannot predict. However, I anticipate that the upgrades to the GDAS/ GFS/ GEFS (new weather data sources - GOES-R primarily, initiation scheme, physics packages and horizontal & vertical resolution) being completed this year will help us see those more often.

The main reason why these get harder to predict is that a forecast has a higher probability of busting outside of 3-5 days and in this modern era of social media, there is a need by many forecasters to be the first. More views and ratings - not much has changed there actually considering traditional media. And the public eats it up! So, us meteorologists have to shoot down these calls and make one of our own that discusses possibilities... every time.

I'm curious... why do you want more than 3-5 days notice? A large outdoor event or vacation (anything else pl comment below!) but you can't plan those at the last week. That way everyone can have a chance to attend or tune in. And for the tropics, evacuations are typically ordered. If we listen & agree to leave and work together to make this an orderly evacuations, four days is perfect from an emergency management/ weather risk/ decision-making perspective. And it's also great from a meteorological perspective!

The models give a very good to great 3-day forecast, decent through very good 5-day forecast, an ok through decent 7-day forecast, and sometimes a skillful 10- to maybe 15-day outlook. It's basically an exponential drop after 3 days. So, there shouldn't be any dire need to make a call from a practical or meteorological standpoint.

So, what is Florence going to do? Here are the scenarios: direct hit then heading inland, recurve at or short of landfall, parallel the coast, and ride up the coast. So, yes, I firmly believe the Eastern US will see not only rough surf/ rip currents but also rain and wind and potentially surge. But we cannot pinpoint exactly where it will hit or even if the eyewall makes it to the coast. For now, residents in the Carolinas to Long Island NY should prepare for rain, wind and probably surge. Cape Cod may also want to prepare for impacts similar to a nor'easter. And don't forget - rough surf everywhere S of there. In addition to Florence, a wave has formed off the SE US/ Bahamas coast that could also bring the rough surf as early as this afternoon.

Severe Weather Survey

We are approaching severe weather season. Before I post the seasonal outlook in a week, I'm hoping to see what you think of the severe weather products issued by the Storm Prediction Center and potentially the NWS. In 2014, the SPC changed its outlooks:

Originally, the day 1-3 used "See Text" (not outlined in the categorical versions), Slight (1), Moderate (2) & High (3); Day 4-8 Outlooks outlined a 30% area if confidence was high enough. Now, they use (1) Marginal (replaces See Text and is outlined in the categorical versions), (2) Slight, (3) Enhanced (replacing the upper-end of slight), (4) Moderate and (5) High. Also, a 15% risk is available to use in the Day 4-8 Outlooks.

The SPC then issues Mesoscale Discussions followed by either Severe T'storm or Tornado Watches, if conditions are favorable for severe weather in and around the watch area. After that, it is handed off to the WFOs for warnings & statements:

• Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO): issued when forecast calls for severe weather
• Special Weather Statements (SWS): strong storms approaching
• River Flood Watch: river flooding probable
• River Flood Warning: river flooding imminent
• River Flood products are usually issued by the River Forecast Centers
• Flood Advisory: very localized flooding, primarily near creeks and streams
• Flood Watch: widespread flooding from heavy rain probable
• Flood Warning: widespread flooding... occurring or imminent
• Flash Flood Watch: quick flooding probable
• Flash Flood Warning: quick flooding likely
• These are not issued if the flooding is only expected to affect the usual poor drainage & low-lying spots
• Severe TS Warning: severe storm or severe storm conditions imminent
• Wind gusts of 57.5 mph or greater
• Hail at least 1" thick occurring
• Tornado Warning: tornado occurring (spotter report) or imminent (radar indicated rotation)
• Tornado Emergency: strong tornado (potentially w/ at least 100 mph winds) occurring & moving toward major population center

The HWO indicates a minimum of low-to-mod. confidence. The flood watches are issued with at least mod. confidence but usually with mod.-to-high confidence or better. A warning is issued with high confidence and a hope that ~80%+ verify.

So, my questions are:

1. Would you take action or increase level of concern if you were in a marginal risk of severe storms? How about slight? Enhanced? Moderate risk? High risk? Or should we change those categorical names?
2. What do you do if you hear that a watch is issued? What about when a warning is issued? Does knowing the outlook category matter in each of those situations?
3. There's confusion as to the difference between a watch and warning, primarily because they both begin with "W." How would you fix the NWS alerts suite? We have Outlook, Statement, Watch, Advisory, Warning, Emergency.

Looking forward to your responses here and on FB/ Twitter.

Severe Weather Forecasting "101"

When I predict severe weather, it usually is a process absent of the details: capping & cloud cover, initiation, instability, moisture & low-level dynamics, upper-level dynamics & speed shear, and low-level spin. Beyond three days, some can't be predicted (surface and lower-troposphere parameters) and others (instability, upper-level dynamics, & low pressure areas) are predicted via the global models (GFS, CMC, ECMWF, UKMET, NAVGEM, etc.) but with uncertainties. They are certain enough for the SPC to outline 15, and sometimes 30, percent risk areas on their Day 4-8 Outlooks.

None of these parameters, however, are predicted by the climate models (Euro weeklies & CFS) that I will use in forming my next entry but I can probably gauge how many systems will pass by the NE or Mid-Atl. states in a given season through pattern recognition (much like a winter forecast. So, you can't do much with a seasonal outlook.

You also can't get the mesoscale details nailed (or are more certain) until three days out because you need the short-range models:

1. 16-km SREF - two models ea. w/ 12 initial conditions - out to 87 hr from 3z, 9z, 15z, & 21z
2. 12-km NAM/ NMM/ ARW out to 84 hours from 0z, 6z, 12z, & 18z
3. Hi-Res --------- " ---------- out to 60 hours  ------------- " ------------ (hi-res = 3-4-km) and
4. 13-km RAP & 3-km HRRR out to 18 hrs from every hour of the day
5. There's also the RGEM (Canadian) model out to 48 hrs which covers most of the N & S-Ctrl US

They are nested within the globals and subsequently look at the details between the fronts and pressure systems the globals detect. Therefore, the short-range suite of models can best predict the severe weather parameters. However, they are uncertain enough beyond roughly 60-70% of each run to warrant a phasing in of these models with the globals. This is also why the SPC's detailed probabilities only go out on day 1 but the models are improving, which may - in a few years - result in the SPC using (some form of) detailed probabilities on Day 2 outlooks.

UPDATE 2/14/2020: SPC recently started doing those detailed probabilities on Day 2... replacing "max risk by hazard".

Enough background.... Let's delve into the parameters:

AM Capping

A cap is a layer of warm air that exists around 3/4-1 mi above our heads that keeps severe weather at bay until the peak heating of the day.

It is best measured on a morning sounding using the temp. profile, which in turn produces the LSI/ CSI (lid/ cap strength index). 2-4°C is breakable. Any lower, the storms fire too soon. Any higher, the storms might not form at all.

There's also CIN: Integral (adding), with respect to height, of the negative bouyancy (T(parcel) < T(env)), which is measured in J/kg (energy per unit mass). -75 J/kg is the goal for CIN at the peak heating of the day. The two heights are usually from the LCL (see Moisture below) to the LFC (level of free convection, where T(parcel) first equals T(envt).

I discuss how we break the cap later in the entry.

Moisture

You cannot have a storm without water vapor in the air. You'll know it is moist if the air is sticky. We measure that several ways: dew pt (sfc to 3/4 mi) then, for upper-air levels... relative humidity (RH) and/ or dew-pt-depression (T-T(d)). We also use LCL height, which is the height at which RH is lowest.

To find this height, extend the sfc temp up vertically at the rate of 9.8°C of cooling per 1 km (5.5°F per 1,000 ft) of ascent and the dew pt up vertically at the rate of 2°C of cooling per 1 km (0.33°F per 1000 ft) of ascent until they meet.

Dew Pts. at 12z (about 1-2 hrs after sunrise ET) should be 50-60°F and rise to 55-60°F+ before the storms. LCL heights of 2-3 km MSL ([above] mean sea level) is good for any severe weather.

Cloud Cover/ AM-PM Sunshine

Cloud cover usually contributes to increasing magnitude of CIN, but if they clear by 11a-12p LT, the cap can be overcome. However, sunshine throughout the morning and afternoon is ideal. The sun mixes any incoming moisture down to the sfc (increasing the dew pts) and will sometimes increase the sfc temps to beyond or at the convective temperature. Any lack of moisture and/ or heat at the sunrise observation is solved.

LCL = ~0.5 km. The yellow line is roughly a parcel, which is negatively bouyant up to 4 km. The turquoise area between the yellow line & red temp profile is the CIN. And the convective temp (blue dashed line) is approx. 22-23°C.

Instability

Instability is interpreted & measured just like CIN: using a sounding (afternoon specifically) but we look from ~1 km to 9-12+ km. At those heights, the parcel is positively bouyant: warmer that its surrounding environment at or past the LCL, and it should stay that way for the next 4-8 mi of ascent (lower in the winter and higher in the summer). This allows a thunderstorm to become sustained once it forms.

This is measured in CAPE (1100 J/kg is good for Ern US severe storms) usually using the avg temp & dew pt in the lowest 30-, 50, 60-, or 100-mb, called mixed-layer (ml) CAPE -OR-

Lifted Index (meas'd at 500 mb or ~18,000 ft MSL) = T(parcel) - T(envt), which should be at least -2°C but between -4°C to -8°C. Values of -9 or lower are considered extreme.

The parcel is now mostly right of (warmer than) the red temp. profile, making it positively bouyant with the turquoise area now representing the CAPE. Sfc. temp. now equals convective temp, CIN is almost entirely gone & LI = -4°C (~5.5 km).

In the cases of elevated convection (strong cap but storms still possible), lift the parcel from 850 mb to 500 mb and calculate the lifted index again (this is called the Showalter Index).

Lapse Rates

The difference between two temperatures (T) as you ascend along the profile divided by the height (z) between them is called a lapse rate: [T(UL)-T(LL)]/[z(UL)-z(LL)]. I already gave an example of a lapse rate when I discussed LCL height: -9.8°C/km is called the dry adiabatic lapse rate and on a sounding, it goes up and to the left. The 2°C/km dew pt ascent rate is called the saturation mixing ratio and is not a lapse rate. In fact, lapse rates  primarily refer to temperature. A parcel from the LCL will ascend via another lapse rate, called the moist adiabatic lapse rate, which is initially 5.5°C/km but it steepens to the dry adiabatic lapse rate as you ascend.

A low-level lapse rate (sfc-to-roughly-850-mb) of 6°C/km is good but 8-10 is ideal for severe weather. A mid-to-upper-level lapse rate (850-to-300-mb) of 6°C/km is good, but 7-8 is ideal. A mid-level lapse rate (700-to-500-mb) of at least 7°C/km is pretty much required for an outbreak (lots of reports over a large area).

In the above sounding, the lapse rates (in °C/km) are, respectfully: 8.4, 7.2 & 6.4 respectively. For what it's worth, the highest lapse rate between 850 & 300 mb (with at least 150 mb of ascent) is 7.7°C/km.

Initiation

We've allowed for the AM cap to mostly erode. We just need to get a parcel from the LCL to the LFC in order to tap into the instability. Momentum of the parcel from the rise to the LCL may not be enough and it shouldn't (at least before 2p LT). We need a source of lifting. This can happen with the aid of an old storm's outflow boundary or by a dry line, trough or front. It is boosted by synoptic considerations above 17,000 ft to around 30k-40k+ ft, particularly the jet stream.

(Deep-Layer) Speed Shear

It is the difference in the speed with respect to height, usually measured from the surface to ~50% of the storm depth (effective shear) but 0-6-km, 0-8-km and 0-500-mb shear are also measured/ useful. The wind, due to friction, usually increases with height. It's a vector subtraction, where u is the E-W component of the wind (u=|v|cos(angle)) and v is the N-S component of the wind (v = |v|sin(angle)):

SHEAR = SQRT([u(upper-level) - u(lower level)]^2 + [v(upper-level) - v(lower-level)]^2)
DIRECTION = tan^(-1) of [v(UL)-v(LL)]/[u(UL-u(LL)].

Please note that the angle direction is not based on the same "scale" as the equations above: convert METAR/ Radiosonde from "direction from (N is 0°)" to "direction toward (E is 0°) by taking the wind and subtracting 270° and back to the original "scale" after calculating the reverse tangent.

This is a hodograph: wind vectors at different altitudes plotted on a polar diagram. The wind usually increases with height and takes on a more western component so the faster winds at higher altitudes are further from the center of the diagram.

The turquoise line is approximately the effective shear vector (45% of the storm depth) and you subtract the slower wind (left) from the faster wind (right) after converting both winds to the u- & v-components (proper angles).

The preference is that the shear be at least 20 mph to allow the storm's updraft to separate from the downdraft and sustain it for more than the 30-60 mins. of an ordinary TS's mature phase.

Storm Mode

Compare the direction of the deep-layer shear vector to the boundary initiating a storm. The more parallel they are, the mode will be linear. The more perpendicular they are, the mode will be more discrete.

Sometimes the mode will be cluster if the CAPE*SHEAR does not exceed 20,000 (m/s)^3. The underlined equation results in the Craven-Brooks Number (Jeff Craven & Harold Brooks of NOAA, 2004). We'll modify it as CAPE*SHEAR/(1000 (m/s)^3). 10-20 is good but 20-30 is better.

Tornado Requirements

CAPE: 1500 J/kg is better but 1100 J/kg is needed in the warm season
Other Instability: LI < SI and LI at least -4°C, preferably -5 to -6 or lower
LCL Height: 0.65-1.25 km is ideal, but from 0.35-0.65 & 1.25-1.8 km is ok
Deep Shear: 30-40 kt (35-46 mph) or at least 15 m/s is needed. But 18-20 m/s or higher is ideal
Modes Favored: discrete is best
0-1-km Shear: 7.5 m/s (15 kt, 18 mph) minimum but 10-15 m/s or more is best

And now, we add directional shear using storm-relative helicity (storm motion vector is c):
Integral - from sfc to either 500 m,  1 km, top of the PBL (just below the cap) or 3 km - of the storm-relative wind |(v - c)| * |vorticity| * cosine of the angle between (v - c) & vorticity). The higher the SR helicity, the better the spin. On the hodograph below, it is the area of a piece of pie - between the two dark blue lines and between the storm motion vector & hodograph curve (red):

The 0-1-km helicity is roughly the area of the triangle from green R to the 0-1-km shear vector (turquoise line), but it also extends to the red curve of the wind. So, it is more of a summation (integral) of very small triangles.

Values of the SRH as follows (1km, PBL(top), 500m & 3km respectively) are 100-150 (m/s)^2, 250 (m/s)^2, 75% of the PBL(top), and 300-400+ (m/s)^2 are best. Surface-to-PBL(top) SR Helicity is also called effective SRH.

Combo Parameters

Craven-Brooks is one important multi-parameter function. We have Energy-Helicity Index, Supercell Composite and Significant Tornado Parameter)

0-1-km* EHI (*modified) = sbCAPE (or 0-30-mb/ 0-50-mb mlCAPE) * 0-1-km SR Helicity / [160,000 (m/s)^4]

Values of 0.5-1 or more are good for storms to rotate

0-3-km* EHI (*modified) = mlCAPE (0-50-mb, 0-60-mb or 0-100-mb) * effective or 0-3-km SR Helicity / [160,000 (m/s)^4]

Values should be greater than the 0-1-km modified version. If those values are 1 or more, storms will likely rotate

SCP = [muCAPE (most-usable) / (1000 J/kg)] * [effec. SR Helicity / 50 (m/s)^2] * [effec Shear / (20 m/s)], w/ the last term set to 0 if Effec Shr is less than 10 m/s or 1 if Effec. Shr is 20 m/s or more

One (1) means that the storms are likely to become supercells with a two (2) or more being ideal

Modified STP = [mlCAPE / (1500 J/kg)] * [effec SR Helicity / 150 (m/s)^2] * [effec. Shear / 12 m/s)] * [(2 km - mlLCL height) / 1 km] w/ the effec. Shear term capped at 1.5 and the LCL term capped at 1.0.

Values of 1 or more, combined with SCPs of 1-2 or more indicate tornadoes likely. If the values are 0.5 & 1, weak tornadoes are somewhat likely. EHI is probably more useful for determining if squall line tornadoes are likely.

Conclusion

By looking at soundings, hodographs & their indices combined with an analysis of the spatial guidance (model "error"), we get a pretty clear picture of what is likely to happen if severe weather forms. In the case above - Philadelphia on March 1st, 2017 - not much happened in PA. Was it the 6.4°C/km lapse rate? Was it the AM cloud cover and resultant -200 J/kg of CIN at noon? Most will cite the CIN. Sometimes a storm will form and it can't make a tornado despite all the basic requirements confirmed by model consensus (a powerful confirmation I might add). There's a lot that goes into a severe weather forecast that we don't know. And continued research is needed to fill in the blanks.

My next entry - the seasonal severe weather outlook - will be in approximately 10-20 days. Have a great week.

Weather News & Updates

Again, it has been awhile. Let's update you on the equipment we're using.

GOES-R is in the "air" as of 11/19/16 as GOES West (going operational/ online a few days later). GOES-S (East) & GOES-W ("Central Back-Up") are on the way this year and within two years from now.

America's GFS Model is pretty much fully upgraded: T1534 (13-km horizontal "spacing"), 128 vertical levels, variable time-steps via semi-Lagrangian timing as part of a new physics pkg (better land-sea interactions, non-hydrostatic equations, etc.), and 4D-Variational-En-KF hybrid initiation. I haven't heard anything from WPC or EMC regarding when the SREF, NAM, hi-res-NAM, or MOS will be upgraded/ updated, but that should begin soon, despite a new President.

President Trump is a global climate change denier. He may have briefly said stuff that does not give you that impression but he is pro-business and in this day and age, being pro-business usually means that you are anti-worker and anti-environment. There is, however, little he can do to "stem the tide" of STEM (science, tech, engineering & math) jobs (both green private sector jobs & NOAA jobs - especially the operational (non-research) branches like the NWS) and their people Tweeting despite his gag order(s). On the other hand, there is a lot he can do to trash our environment like who he selected to the EPA and his latest executive order. Rest assured, we can do many things to combat this and it is working

• Contact your local representatives to your State & FEDERAL Senates & Houses of Representatives via visits, phones, pizza deliveries (yes, I have received that recommendation), town halls, etc.
• Adopt personal pro-green policies, which cannot be stopped by Congress or Trump.
• Vote in the next elections:
• 2017 & 2019 for local races
• 2018 Federal Congress
• 2020 Federal Congress & Presidencies
• Consider running for Congress

Anyway, enough politics. Hope this update found you well and caught you up on the big weather news stories of GOES-R and model updates. And I will re-inquire about the rest of the models.

Also, the ECMWF is updating their model by 2020 and will house it - presumably due to Brexit - in Italy instead of Reading, England.

Next blog entry will be in progress soon is nearly done: Severe Weather Parameters (details on FB - and those details are accessible via Twitter). I'll follow that with a seasonal severe weather forecast approx. two weeks later. Have a great week!

Updates from NOAA on GFS & Forecasting Techniques Upgrades

Earlier this month, the Environmental Modeling Center released the "Parallel GFS," the 13-km-out-to-240-hours Resolution Global Spectral Model that will become operational on December 9th. It's analysis is 16-km and has an improved physics package to account for it's ability to see mesoscale-alpha & some mesoscale-beta features (e.g. clusters of storms, squall lines, overnight MCCs & MCSs, tropical systems, possibly bands of snow in nor'easters). It's viewable at the link below:

The schedule for the roll-out of the rest of the upgrades is as follows (source: NWS Director Uccellini's interview on Wx Geeks, refined by a chat between myself & the EMC in early Oct.):

• Mid-to-Late Winter 2014-2015: Delivery of FY2015, Sandy-Relief-Pkg-funded Supercomputer
• Early-to-Mid Autumn 2015: Testing of current model suite on FY15 supercomputer complete.
• Mid-to-Late Autumn/ Dec. 2015: GFS will initialize using a hybrid of an Ensemble Kalman Filter and 4D-Variational scheme and full upgrade to the Physics package
• October 2016: Begin upgrading the downstream/ nested models, possibly modifying the current de-biasing method: Model Output Statistics

More weather prediction news:

1. This past Hurricane Season was the first in which the National Hurricane Center (NHC) used a five-day forecast (in addition to the 48-hour probabilities) in its Tropical Outlooks.
2. The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model (a.k.a. the "Pirate Model"), a 3-km Grid-Point model initialized within the Rapid Refresh (RAP) model, is now operational.
3. The new Days 1, 2, and 3 convective outlooks published by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) are now operational: "Marginal" replaces "See Text" and "Enhanced" replaces the so called "High-End Slight Risk" with "Slight Risk" probabilities now closer to "Climatology" (avg. # of severe wx days per year divided by 365 times 100%).
4. The 15% risk in the SPC's Day 4-8 Convective Outlook will be operational in mid-to-late December 2015.
5. Already set to receive data from these new weather satellites, NESDIS (NOAA's Satellite Division) - in conjunction with NASA, have announced that GOES-R (west) & GOES-S (east) will be launched in 2016 & 2018, replacing the current GOES-11 & GOES-13 satellites respectively. These new satellites have a longer-lasting back-up battery (for use during equinoxes) and can send data every 1-15 mins. for use in satellite loops and the new initialization scheme in our numerical models. They were originally set for launch in 2014 & 2016, but budget cuts delayed this.

My Thoughts:

This is a step in the right direction for the NWS, which may - once again - surpass the Europeans & Canadians for No. 1 in Numerical Model Prediction. In my opinion, however, a global spectral model having resolutions greater than 16-km for prediction may not be optimal because of the limitations of our understanding of the physics at higher resolutions. It may be more appropriate to use a series of nested grid models instead: 20-, 12-, 4-, and 1.33-km grids (as I said in my summer post). As for the forecasting techniques, this is a big step for NOAA equivalent to acknowledging (1) increased ability to predict weather at finer scales further out in time and (2) changes in communication infrastructure & understanding of the social sciences (psychology & sociology). I cannot wait until everything is in place in about five years.

Announcements from JBreezy Weather:

I conclude this entry with a few announcements:

1. My next post is on the 2014-2015 Winter Forecast and will be in-progress next week (first week in Nov.).
2. I will be posting 3-, 5-, 7-, and 10-day forecasts on Facebook & Twitter (@jbreezywx) at least twice per week.
3. Don't forget to move your clocks back one hour Saturday night and also change batteries in your smoke & carbon monoxide detectors.
4. Vote on Tuesday! While this blog is for weather, I will always encourage you to be a part of the political process that made these upgrades possible. It is expected to be a nice day Tuesday for JBreezy Weather's coverage area with highs in the mid-60s, so #NoExcuses - VOTE!
5. I will occasionally post video briefings (live broadcast) on Youtube (User: jbreezy101). My most recent one is the Severe Weather from the 12th through the 16th (posted 10/10).
6. I am also a weather commentator/ forecaster/ blogger on ShareAviation.com. My username is "JaronBreen" and I run the "Weather Help & Briefings" group.
7. On Wednesday, the National Weather Association (NWA) opens it's "Digital Seal" program. I will be pursuing this.

Have a great Halloween & start to November. Safe trick-or-treating and I'll see you here in about 7-10 days for the winter forecast. Tune in on Facebook & Twitter!!!