I have some exams so I'll make this quick.
Warm front to slide northeastward today. Showers and storms possible before and during the frontal passage. While in the warm sector, there will be self-destructing sunshine, which may lead to convective showers and storms each day. The best chance of severe weather will be Friday when the cold front approaches. It will be a warm week despite the showery weather, mostly because of sunshine.
Long term: Look out for El Nino and Atlantic ocean blocking to take shape this weekend. I'll have more later.
Monday, April 30, 2012
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Brief Update
Focus City: Nowhere specific, but parts of the I-95 and I-77 corridors are a good focus area.
Short term:
Frost and freeze still possible for a few more nights but please continue reading - I have good news:
A shot of tropical air is on tap for the Eastern mid-Atlantic early next week. A cold front may touch off thunderstorms in parts of the Eastern States mid-week. Wednesday's 12Z GFS was pretty favorable for strong storms.
Other models: Euro was fast and Canadian was slow. Both had a less-favored upper-air pattern.
Evaluation: Will watch for trends in 850 mb temps, 1000-500 mb thickness, 300-mb jet streak position, and 500 mb trough tilt. The consistency in GFS Ensemble runs and the Euro/ Canadian with regard to warm-up and cold front passage warrants continued monitoring.
Long-range:
April showers bring may flowers, but April may be relatively dry. With chances for showers/ storms between Saturday and Thursday and about four chances for wet weather in the ten- to sixteen-day forecast, look for those May flowers to have a decent chance to sprout. Keep up with watering in between these chances and you flowers should last.
I will have a more technical version soon. I've had quite a lot of work to do the past few weeks, but will put in some forecasting time this week.
Short term:
Frost and freeze still possible for a few more nights but please continue reading - I have good news:
A shot of tropical air is on tap for the Eastern mid-Atlantic early next week. A cold front may touch off thunderstorms in parts of the Eastern States mid-week. Wednesday's 12Z GFS was pretty favorable for strong storms.
Other models: Euro was fast and Canadian was slow. Both had a less-favored upper-air pattern.
Evaluation: Will watch for trends in 850 mb temps, 1000-500 mb thickness, 300-mb jet streak position, and 500 mb trough tilt. The consistency in GFS Ensemble runs and the Euro/ Canadian with regard to warm-up and cold front passage warrants continued monitoring.
Long-range:
April showers bring may flowers, but April may be relatively dry. With chances for showers/ storms between Saturday and Thursday and about four chances for wet weather in the ten- to sixteen-day forecast, look for those May flowers to have a decent chance to sprout. Keep up with watering in between these chances and you flowers should last.
I will have a more technical version soon. I've had quite a lot of work to do the past few weeks, but will put in some forecasting time this week.
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