Friday, May 4, 2012

PA T'storm Potential Update - 5.4.12

Fact: Today is the fifth anniversary of the Greensburg, KS tornado that killed 11 people and almost wiped that town off the map.

The following short-term forecast is for central PA.

Slight risk of severe t'storms for most of the Commonwealth.

Sunny, very warm and muggy between now and 2 PM with highs into the 80s dew points in the 60s. Thunderstorms develop after 3 PM and evolve into clusters just like the past few days. Primary threats: rainfall rates to 0.8"/hr and lightning. Other threats: wind gusts (mainly 25-40 mph with isolated speeds to 60 mph) & small hail (pea- to half-dollar-size at the biggest).

Acknowledgements: I was at the NWS in State College from 8:30-10 AM and listened to their brief discussion, which was the motivation for writing this.

Probability of a Watch: less than 15%.

Disclaimer: The forecasts I posted this week and other weeks in the future are my own and not the official forecasts/ opinions of other sources I consult. I will give credit to those sources for the information they provide.

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