Focus City: State College, PA
Seven-Day Forecast Discussion:
A weak mid-latitude cyclone that touched off isolated thunderstorms last night is currently moving across the Commonwealth today. Cloud cover will begin decreasing. Overnight, high pressure will slide eastward over southern New England, which will be in control of our weather for about 24 hours. A cluster of weak upper-level disturbances (500-mb vorticity maxima) will "bring" a trough (axis of low pressure) northward (showers & storms possible), pushing the high pressure system off the New England coast - all that to occur tomorrow night into Thurs. AM. The trough will settle over southern Upstate NY (near I-90) on Thursday. While near the trough axis (and its zone of mass convergence) on Thursday and Friday, sunny skies may lead to nearby pop-up thunderstorms (the "self-destructing sunshine" effect). On Thursday, a backdoor cold front will head into eastern PA and start to weaken as it heads into the state. But the temperatures east and west of the BDF will be quite different. Two cold fronts will make their way from west to east: one on Friday and another on Saturday... which could lead to showers and thunderstorms each day. Strong storms, while only a remote possibility of occurring, cannot be ruled out entirely. High pressure will move into the area on Sunday, settling over the Northeast US on Monday.
Acknowledgements: I consulted the official discussion from the NWS in State College.
Temperatures: Seventies today and eighties for the second half of the week. Back to the low-to-mid-60s early next week.
Long-term Briefing:
A weak system could be nearby during the middle of next week. Two more systems that look pretty strong could arrive next weekend and in the middle of the following week respectively. In between, look for passing high pressures systems to clear the air for a couple of days.
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