Hi, everyone. It has been awhile since I've blogged. As I've stated before, the core of JBreezy Weather is social media and I've had trouble keeping up with that. So what compels me to blog tonight (12:30 AM ET Sat 8/8)? Florence.
Every severe weather event - more specifically extreme precipitation (winter storm, tropical system, and severe storms day) - has become seemingly more difficult to predict. Why? I'm sure many of you thought of the weather models come to mind. So are they to blame? Yes, to a degree. It seems that Mother Nature does throw a curve ball every now and again that many meteorologists cannot predict. However, I anticipate that the upgrades to the GDAS/ GFS/ GEFS (new weather data sources - GOES-R primarily, initiation scheme, physics packages and horizontal & vertical resolution) being completed this year will help us see those more often.
The main reason why these get harder to predict is that a forecast has a higher probability of busting outside of 3-5 days and in this modern era of social media, there is a need by many forecasters to be the first. More views and ratings - not much has changed there actually considering traditional media. And the public eats it up! So, us meteorologists have to shoot down these calls and make one of our own that discusses possibilities... every time.
I'm curious... why do you want more than 3-5 days notice? A large outdoor event or vacation (anything else pl comment below!) but you can't plan those at the last week. That way everyone can have a chance to attend or tune in. And for the tropics, evacuations are typically ordered. If we listen & agree to leave and work together to make this an orderly evacuations, four days is perfect from an emergency management/ weather risk/ decision-making perspective. And it's also great from a meteorological perspective!
The models give a very good to great 3-day forecast, decent through very good 5-day forecast, an ok through decent 7-day forecast, and sometimes a skillful 10- to maybe 15-day outlook. It's basically an exponential drop after 3 days. So, there shouldn't be any dire need to make a call from a practical or meteorological standpoint.
So, what is Florence going to do? Here are the scenarios: direct hit then heading inland, recurve at or short of landfall, parallel the coast, and ride up the coast. So, yes, I firmly believe the Eastern US will see not only rough surf/ rip currents but also rain and wind and potentially surge. But we cannot pinpoint exactly where it will hit or even if the eyewall makes it to the coast. For now, residents in the Carolinas to Long Island NY should prepare for rain, wind and probably surge. Cape Cod may also want to prepare for impacts similar to a nor'easter. And don't forget - rough surf everywhere S of there. In addition to Florence, a wave has formed off the SE US/ Bahamas coast that could also bring the rough surf as early as this afternoon.
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