Updates from NOAA on GFS & Forecasting Techniques Upgrades

Earlier this month, the Environmental Modeling Center released the "Parallel GFS," the 13-km-out-to-240-hours Resolution Global Spectral Model that will become operational on December 9th. It's analysis is 16-km and has an improved physics package to account for it's ability to see mesoscale-alpha & some mesoscale-beta features (e.g. clusters of storms, squall lines, overnight MCCs & MCSs, tropical systems, possibly bands of snow in nor'easters). It's viewable at the link below:

The schedule for the roll-out of the rest of the upgrades is as follows (source: NWS Director Uccellini's interview on Wx Geeks, refined by a chat between myself & the EMC in early Oct.):

• Mid-to-Late Winter 2014-2015: Delivery of FY2015, Sandy-Relief-Pkg-funded Supercomputer
• Early-to-Mid Autumn 2015: Testing of current model suite on FY15 supercomputer complete.
• Mid-to-Late Autumn/ Dec. 2015: GFS will initialize using a hybrid of an Ensemble Kalman Filter and 4D-Variational scheme and full upgrade to the Physics package
• October 2016: Begin upgrading the downstream/ nested models, possibly modifying the current de-biasing method: Model Output Statistics

More weather prediction news:

1. This past Hurricane Season was the first in which the National Hurricane Center (NHC) used a five-day forecast (in addition to the 48-hour probabilities) in its Tropical Outlooks.
2. The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model (a.k.a. the "Pirate Model"), a 3-km Grid-Point model initialized within the Rapid Refresh (RAP) model, is now operational.
3. The new Days 1, 2, and 3 convective outlooks published by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) are now operational: "Marginal" replaces "See Text" and "Enhanced" replaces the so called "High-End Slight Risk" with "Slight Risk" probabilities now closer to "Climatology" (avg. # of severe wx days per year divided by 365 times 100%).
4. The 15% risk in the SPC's Day 4-8 Convective Outlook will be operational in mid-to-late December 2015.
5. Already set to receive data from these new weather satellites, NESDIS (NOAA's Satellite Division) - in conjunction with NASA, have announced that GOES-R (west) & GOES-S (east) will be launched in 2016 & 2018, replacing the current GOES-11 & GOES-13 satellites respectively. These new satellites have a longer-lasting back-up battery (for use during equinoxes) and can send data every 1-15 mins. for use in satellite loops and the new initialization scheme in our numerical models. They were originally set for launch in 2014 & 2016, but budget cuts delayed this.

My Thoughts:

This is a step in the right direction for the NWS, which may - once again - surpass the Europeans & Canadians for No. 1 in Numerical Model Prediction. In my opinion, however, a global spectral model having resolutions greater than 16-km for prediction may not be optimal because of the limitations of our understanding of the physics at higher resolutions. It may be more appropriate to use a series of nested grid models instead: 20-, 12-, 4-, and 1.33-km grids (as I said in my summer post). As for the forecasting techniques, this is a big step for NOAA equivalent to acknowledging (1) increased ability to predict weather at finer scales further out in time and (2) changes in communication infrastructure & understanding of the social sciences (psychology & sociology). I cannot wait until everything is in place in about five years.

Announcements from JBreezy Weather:

I conclude this entry with a few announcements:

1. My next post is on the 2014-2015 Winter Forecast and will be in-progress next week (first week in Nov.).
2. I will be posting 3-, 5-, 7-, and 10-day forecasts on Facebook & Twitter (@jbreezywx) at least twice per week.
3. Don't forget to move your clocks back one hour Saturday night and also change batteries in your smoke & carbon monoxide detectors.
4. Vote on Tuesday! While this blog is for weather, I will always encourage you to be a part of the political process that made these upgrades possible. It is expected to be a nice day Tuesday for JBreezy Weather's coverage area with highs in the mid-60s, so #NoExcuses - VOTE!
5. I will occasionally post video briefings (live broadcast) on Youtube (User: jbreezy101). My most recent one is the Severe Weather from the 12th through the 16th (posted 10/10).
6. I am also a weather commentator/ forecaster/ blogger on ShareAviation.com. My username is "JaronBreen" and I run the "Weather Help & Briefings" group.
7. On Wednesday, the National Weather Association (NWA) opens it's "Digital Seal" program. I will be pursuing this.

Have a great Halloween & start to November. Safe trick-or-treating and I'll see you here in about 7-10 days for the winter forecast. Tune in on Facebook & Twitter!!!