8/2/12: TD 5 Discussion

UPDATE (4 AM Friday): Now Tropical Storm Ernesto.

TD 5 (formerly Invest 99L) has formed Wednesday afternoon 800 mi (1300 km) SE of the Antillies. It has become less organized during the evening due to diurnal cooling, influx of dry air & shear on the north side. Here's the forecast scenarios, followed by a note about the intensity and then my forecast.

TRACK

Scenario 1: Heads WNW (280°). Landfall near Dominica Island around noon ET Friday and then hits Jamacia Sunday night. TS-force gusts, rainfall and an angry ocean affect the southern coasts in the northern Caribbean. (NHC Track, GFS model)

• Scenario 1A: Becomes a 75-mph hurricane near Jamacia. Hits Yucitan Peninsula Wed. AM; heads toward Gulf Coast. (Long-Rage GFS)
• Scenario 1B: Turns NE as it nears Jamacia. Hispanola, Cuba, Wrn Bahamas and eventually south FL affected. Will likely stay a TS if this occurs.

Scenario 2: Heads WNW (285-295°). Landfall near Guadeloupe Friday late afternoon and then Hispanola midnight Sat. night into Sunday. Turns NE: Cuba, Srn Bahamas, Straights of FL eventually affected. Puerto Rico could see TS conditions and better chance of heavy rain with this scenario. The storm could weaken after hitting Hispanola and Cuba. (Nrn NHC Track, European Model)

Scenario 3: Neads NE (295-310°). Landfall near Montserrat & Antigua Friday night, near Puerto Rico 24 hrs. later and then follows an Irene-like path through the SE Bahamas. After that, it could either turn N or turn back to the W. (Climatology, Canadian Model)

INTENSITY

I've discussed other intensity probabilities (i.e. becoming a hurricane) above. Just wanted to make it clear that this has a 95% chance of becoming the fifth named storm of the season - Ernesto. Most likely, that's sometime tomorrow (Thursday), but it could be Friday around 19Z at the latest.

MY CALL

Too Early To Tell, but a more northerly route than Scenario 1 makes sense right now. Don't hold me to that; we need dropsonde data. This route is central to 1 & 2 and gives me a few points if climatology is correct. I'll keep you updated, either here or on the Facebook Page.

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FORECASTER: BREEN

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