Focus City: Nowhere specific, but parts of the I-95 and I-77 corridors are a good focus area.
Short term:
Frost and freeze still possible for a few more nights but please continue reading - I have good news:
A shot of tropical air is on tap for the Eastern mid-Atlantic early next week. A cold front may touch off thunderstorms in parts of the Eastern States mid-week. Wednesday's 12Z GFS was pretty favorable for strong storms.
Other models: Euro was fast and Canadian was slow. Both had a less-favored upper-air pattern.
Evaluation: Will watch for trends in 850 mb temps, 1000-500 mb thickness, 300-mb jet streak position, and 500 mb trough tilt. The consistency in GFS Ensemble runs and the Euro/ Canadian with regard to warm-up and cold front passage warrants continued monitoring.
Long-range:
April showers bring may flowers, but April may be relatively dry. With chances for showers/ storms between Saturday and Thursday and about four chances for wet weather in the ten- to sixteen-day forecast, look for those May flowers to have a decent chance to sprout. Keep up with watering in between these chances and you flowers should last.
I will have a more technical version soon. I've had quite a lot of work to do the past few weeks, but will put in some forecasting time this week.
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